The Dangers Of Tying Your Business To Another

Recent announcements by Twitter and Apple have significantly impacted each company’s developer network (more about Apple in a few days).

As many of you know, Twitter decided a few days ago to acquire the company that makes and sells Tweetie, a popular iPhone client. Prior to this acquisition, Twitter didn’t have its own iPhone application. In part, this was because a healthy and broad third party ecosystem of Twitter apps was developing around Twitter (most of the third party developers, like Twitter, had no revenue model).

Twitter’s decision has caused many in the Twitter developer ecosystem to wonder about their future and whether Twitter’s continued search for a revenue model would put more Twitter-dependent companies out of business.

Twitter’s announcement (and the reaction from Twitter’s developer community) highlights something that’s always been a risk: tying your business to that of another company. I discuss this risk in the following short video.

What do you think? Do you think companies should ever feel comfortable tying their future to a single ecosystem?

Startup Revenue Models

People get excited about outliers – companies like Twitter and Facebook – who command a lot of attention and have astronomical valuations. 99.999% of startups are nothing like Twitter and Facebook. If you have great idea, focus on building a real business – with a real revenue model. In this 3 minute video, I discuss why.

If you’re interested in more details about building a financial model, I encourage you to read Mike Samson’s post in the crowdSPRING blog – 10 thoughts for small businesses and startups on financial modeling.

If you’re enjoying these videos, I ask for a small favor in return. Leave a comment with a suggestion or question or retweet this post (or both). And if there are particular topics you’d like to hear about – please let me know in the comments.

Start-up Tip: What’s Your Revenue Model?

Some people suggest that start-ups need not have a revenue generating model when they are founded. A few suggest that focusing on a revenue model too early can hurt a business. Many will point to Google’s lack of a clear revenue model when it was founded (and to other examples).

A number of companies (including Google) have achieved great success (whether measured by revenues or acquisition) even though they did not have a clearly articulated revenue model. For each of those examples, there are hundreds of thousands of companies that failed because they did not have a clearly articulated revenue model.

Let’s look at a few facts. In 2007, angels invested $26 billion in 57,120 businesses, according to Center for Venture Research. VC’s invested $29.4 billion in 3,813 businesses in 2007. That’s at total of 60,933 businesses.

According to the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, about 495,000 businesses were started in the United States in 2007 – every month. That’s nearly 6 million new businesses in a year. The vast majority of those businesses will not receive any form of outside funding.

While those statistics include businesses like dry cleaners, retail stores, and others, they also include many technology start-ups. Although data isn’t yet available for 2008, there’s no reason to believe it will be vastly different.

It’s important for entrepreneurs to recognize that while they shouldn’t necessarily ignore an exit strategy, they should be looking to build a sustainable business, not a quick sale. The current economic market conditions make exit strategies extremely difficult. That means that companies must find a way to get people to pay them. Imagine that.

Some companies have a simple revenue model: get acquired before they run out of money. An exit strategy is not a revenue model, except for a very tiny fraction of companies.

Other start-ups, when pressed on this issue, will suggest that their revenue model is advertising alone. Except for a very small group of companies, advertising alone is not a revenue model.

A revenue model has a number of components, but none more critical than a very simple fact: you must find a way to make more money than you spend.

If your goal is to make money (whether by operating your company or becoming acquired), you’ll need to find a compelling revenue generating model sufficiently early to be able to execute your plan. There’s a reason why potential investors drill entrepreneurs about the revenue model for the business – it’s because a business typically must earn revenues to succeed.

Our revenue model is simple: people pay us. We make a 15% commission on the awards offered by buyers in the crowdSPRING marketplace. We’re far from reaching profitability (we’ve been at it for only 4 months), but we assessed and developed our revenue model before we met with a single investor. We know that we must scale to succeed, but we also know that if we scale, our revenue model will allow us to operate our company profitably.

If the grim reality that most start-ups fail hasn’t caused you to sit down and think about your revenue model, the recent economic chaos should give you that incentive. Take the time and think about your business. What is your revenue model?

If you have your own tips or stories, please feel free to share in the comments.

Start-up Tip: Building The Budget Side Of Your Revenue Model

A few days ago, I wrote about the need for companies to develop a compelling revenue generating model. Although it’s not necessary to understand your expenses when you are developing a revenue model, it’s difficult to properly evaluate a revenue model without considering your expenses. After all, you want to develop a revenue model that allows you to build a sustainable business, and no business operates without expenses.

For us, the first step in building our revenue model was to anticipate and develop our budget models (we did this in Microsoft Excel, but there are existing tools, such as Quicken, that can help you to build your budget). Building a solid budget is an involving process and requires a great deal of thought and error-checking. We had a separate budget for development and also prepared a budget for the first five years of operation (our model actually covered the first 10 years, but most people focus only on a three or five year budget, given the difficulty of anticipating expenses with any degree of accuracy looking forward beyond five years).

In building our budget model, we had to anticipate our cost of sales, operational expenses (not including salaries), direct salary expenses, and employee related expenses. For the current or upcoming year, you’ll want a month by month breakdown; for full years after the upcoming year, you’ll want the annual breakdown at this point (some people will do quarterly projections).

To better understand your budget, you’ll want to include in your worksheet your cash on hand, interest income, and the anticipated revenues, by month for the upcoming year (we’ll look at building the revenue side of your financial model next week). You don’t need the level of detail for revenue on your budget worksheet that you’d include on the revenue worksheet, but you’ll want to know these numbers. Let’s look at the categories for the budget items:

1. COS (cost of sales).

You’ll need to understand how much it will cost you to produce and sell your product and/or service. COS is a variable cost because it will have a direct relationship to the amount of your sales. Generally, as sales increase, you’ll pay higher COS costs. Some COS categories are less variable than others. For example, we assumed we’d pay a fixed amount for web hosting during our first year because we anticipated that our technical infrastructure could support a level of traffic through our third year of operation (we were wrong about traffic – we had to upgrade after three months, but we budgeted more money than we needed for this and so ultimately, we projected correctly). On the other hand, credit card fees are variable because they represent a percetage of sales. As sales increase, the fees would stay constant but would represent a higher total.

The following categories may differ for you, but here are the categories that we included in our budget: Hosting, Commission – Sales (anticipating an affiliate program), Subcontracting, Design, Programming, Credit Card Fees, Other costs (bad debt), Payment Gateway Services, and Disbursement Expenses (the cost to pay out). All but Hosting and Payment Gateway Services were truly variable and were stated as a percentage. Hosting and Payment Gateway Services in our first budget were fixed numbers.

You’ll want to Total your COS.

2. Operational

You’ll need to consider how many employees you’ll need, how much you’ll pay them, how much you’ll pay yourself, what benefits you’ll offer, other expenses, what office space will cost, what equipment and software you’ll need to buy, etc. There are many items to consider in operational expenses. There are all of your expenses in operating your business (other than salaries and COS). If you’re operating your business in your kitchen, these expenses should be lower. If you’re renting office space, they’ll be higher.

The following categories may differ for you, but here are the categories that we included in our budget: Fixed Assets: furniture and fixtures, Fixed Assets: software, Fixed Assets: equipment, Bank Charges, Auto, Insurance: Liability, Interest, Investment Expenses, Marketing, Marketing: Conventions & Seminars, Marketing: Meals and Entertainment, Marketing: Viral, Miscellaneous, Office Supplies, Office expense, Office expense: housekeeping, Dues and Subscriptions, Recruitment, Rent, R&D, Shipping & Postage, Telephone, Travel, Utilities, Utilities: internet service, Professional fees, Professional fees: designs, Professional fees: accountant. (we would have added Professional fees: lawyer, but I scraped by doing our legal work).

You’ll want to Total your Operational Expenses.

3. Salaries

You’ll want to include salaries to anyone in the company that will be drawing a salary during that budget year. If you anticipate hiring mid-year, prorate the anticipated salary. Make sure you list each person on a separate line so that you can easily tweak as necessary.

You’ll want to Total your Salary Expenses.

4. Employee Related

Here, you’ll want to include the expenses related to the salaries you listed in section 3.

The following categories may differ for you, but here are the categories that we included in our budget: Employee Benefits: 401k admin, Employee Benefits: Disability insurance, Employee Benefits: Health Insurance, Employee Benefits: Gifts; Insurance: Workmans Comp, Payroll fee, and Payroll tax.

You’ll want to Total your Employee Related Expenses. And you’ll also want to Total your Operating Expenses (including sections 1, 2, 3 and 4).

So that you better understand your budget, you should consider including a few other calculations here. For example, after we totaled our Operating Expenses, we took into account our anticipated Operating Profit, Depreciation, Earnings Before Taxes, Taxes, and projected our Net Income.

We also created a summary for ourselves that reflected our anticipated gross sales, total COS, Gross Profit, Margin %, Total Operating Expenses, to project our Earnings Before Income Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA).

Finally, because we were developing software, we calculated our Research and Development Credit (this is a more complicated subject – we’ll talk about that in another post).

There you have it. Once you create a worksheet for the upcoming year broken-up into months, you’ll easily be able to create a budget worksheet for your first five years of operation.

If this post didn’t put you to sleep and you’re reading this – you get a bonus! If you need some help to get started, email me (ross at crowdspring dot com) and I’ll be happy to email you the Excel worksheet for our budget (without the numbers, of course), but with the formulas intact.

If you have your own tips or stories, please feel free to share in the comments.